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Design Is Storytelling · 13 of 14
Design Is Storytelling
AI Software Development MEDIUM

Scenario Planning, Design Fiction, and Forced Connections

Design Is Storytelling Ellen Lupton
scenario-planning design-fiction speculative-design futures-thinking forced-connections

Key Principle

Scenario planning applies narrative structure to strategic decision-making. Instead of predicting a single future, it forces teams to narrativize multiple divergent outcomes branching from present-moment decisions. The core insight: the probable future (where trends carry you by default) and the preferable future (where you actually want to go) are different destinations, and reaching the preferable one requires deliberate intervention.

This principle extends through three linked tools: the cone of plausibility maps widening uncertainty across tiers, the scenario matrix generates four competing stories from two variables, and design fiction renders speculative futures as tangible artifacts. All three treat storytelling as a planning instrument rather than a presentation technique.

Why This Matters

Organizations default to extrapolating the present forward -- linear projection that leaves them blindsided by lateral shifts. Scenario planning breaks this habit by requiring teams to confront uncomfortable futures alongside comfortable ones. Without it, planning collapses into a single story, which is the most dangerous kind of fiction: one that pretends not to be fictional.

Design fiction adds a second dimension: without speculative prototyping, design remains purely reactive, responding only after problems emerge. The speculative artifact makes consequences tangible before they arrive, exposing both the promise and the dangers of current trajectories.

Good Examples

Cone of Plausibility (pp. 44-46) -- Visually maps uncertainty from present to future across nested tiers: Preferable (actively pursued), Probable (trend default), Plausible (logically derived from known trends), Possible (anything that could happen), and Wild Card (low-probability, high-impact). The present is the narrowest point -- the moment of maximum control. Originated with Charles W. Taylor (1988) at the Strategic Studies Institute; adapted by Hancock and Bezold (1994).

Blurble Four Plausible Futures (p. 47) -- A fictional product's future branches into Monopoly, Collapse, Competition, and Commons quadrants, with wild cards (causes cancer, cures cancer, spawns new religion). The double-cone diagram shows the past fanning out too -- historical contingency mirrors future uncertainty.

Museum Scenario Matrix (pp. 48-49) -- A 2x2 grid (Preserve Culture vs. Serve Visitors; Falling vs. Rising Attendance) maps where an institution is stuck versus where it wants to go. The insight: reaching the desired quadrant requires shifting along both axes simultaneously.

The Thing from the Future (p. 53) -- Card game by Stuart Candy and Jeff Watson implementing reverse archaeology. Four suits -- Arc (growth/collapse), Terrain (learning/zombies), Mood (worry/amusement), Object (beverage/device) -- generate combinatorial prompts no single designer would reach through linear thinking. Recalls Oblique Strategies (Eno & Schmidt, 1975).

Speculative Underwear (p. 51) -- Tech-enhanced underwear concepts (fertility tracking, STD detection, digital chastity belt) demonstrate design fiction's dual valence: the same speculative artifact reveals both health benefits and surveillance dangers. Designer intent determines which reading dominates.

Counterpoints

  • Wild cards fall outside trend extrapolation by definition; the cone's value is in expanding thinking, not in accurately predicting which tier a future lands in.
  • Scenario matrix output quality depends entirely on selecting the right critical uncertainties. Poor axis selection yields trivial scenarios.
  • Conceptual design (Dunne & Raby) deliberately refuses market-ready products. Without this critical strand, design fiction risks collapsing into corporate futurism -- concept cars that serve marketing rather than inquiry.
  • Forced connections privilege depth over speed, which cuts against the volume-first logic of standard sticky-note brainstorming. The tradeoff is intentional.

Key Quotes

"Scenario planning is a tool for telling stories about the future." -- Ellen Lupton (Act 1: Action, p. 44)

"Achieving preferred (rather than probable) outcomes requires rethinking old habits and pushing past the status quo." -- Ellen Lupton (Act 1: Action, p. 46)

"Design fiction employs speculative products and prototypes to anticipate future trends or propose visionary solutions to vexing problems." -- Ellen Lupton (Act 1: Action, p. 50)

"Once designers step away from industrial production and the marketplace, we enter the realm of the unreal, the fictional, or what we prefer to think of as conceptual design -- design about ideas." -- Anthony Dunne and Fiona Raby, quoted in Act 1: Action, p. 52

Rules of Thumb

  • The probable future is not the preferable one. If your plan only accounts for trend continuation, you are drifting, not steering.
  • Point the cone backward too: studying how things worked before current conditions existed defamiliarizes the present and reveals that today's dominant solutions are contingent, not inevitable.
  • Name each scenario quadrant with a memorable phrase. Narrative compression makes complex futures discussable and drives organizational traction.
  • Present observation is the engine of future-thinking: speculation works through amplification of existing signals, not imagination alone.
  • Use forced connections to escape habitual ideation: assign a random, unrelated attribute to the design problem, then follow the conceptual chain from literal to lateral. Adjectives and verbs both work as prompts.
  • Constrained randomness (fixed categories, variable content) generates prompts unreachable through linear thinking. Use card-based systems when brainstorming stalls.

Related References